Examination of industry production index in Turkey with time series method

Hatice Öncel Çekim


In this paper, the time series analysis is conducted to the monthly industrial production index data calculated between 2005 and 2017 by TURKSTAT. The aim of the study is to define the industrial production index with the time series chart, to find the suitable time series model for the index and to forecast the future values of the index. For this purpose, we make the series stationary by taking both the first difference and the second seasonal difference of the series to perform the Box-Jenkins models. As a result of the analysis, SARIMA(1,1,1)(3,2,0)12model is determined as the most suitable model for the series. Using this model, the forecast values for the months of 2018 of the index series are calculated.

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